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Murphy Martin Commentary
March 15, 2007
"2008 Could Be Different"
A look at the political headlines earlier this week was a firm
reminder, as if we needed a reminder, the presidential election of
2008 could be very different. It could provide many firsts, or, it
may--to the surprise of many--be the same as all previous
presidential elections.
Dozens of polls have already been done and about the only sameness
found in each is there seems to be a good chance a changing America
could be reflected at the polls in 2008. Among the firsts possible
in 2008, from those we already have an eye on the prize, are these:
We could have the first female president in our history!
We could have the first African-American president!
We could have the oldest person ever elected president for a first
term!
We could elect the first Mormon president!
We could elect the first Hispanic president!
We could elect the first Italian-American!
The first thrice-married candidate!
Hilary Clinton is pulling out all stops in her reach for history as
is Barack Obama as the first African-American.
John McCain will be, if
elected in 2008, the oldest, at 72, to be elected for a first term
as President. Rudolph Giuliani could be the first who has been
married three-times, first Italian-American and the second Catholic,
if he is successful. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico would be the
first Hispanic to preside at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And, Mitt
Romney would be the first Mormon elected.
Will any of these possibilities happen, or, will someone like John
Edwards make it the 44th time America has chosen a white male to
lead the world's most powerful nation.
Long before we go to the
polls in 2008, we have endless polls to be completed and not all
will be truly meaningful. In fact, many , if not most will have
questions, asked in such a way as to arrive at a preconceived answer
that someone somewhere thinks will help some particular candidate
gain an edge.
As an example, in a USA Today/Gallup poll, the basic question had to
do with breaking new ground. What would the completely comfortable
level be regarding:
FEMALE CANDIDATE: Blacks 90%, Liberal Dems 90%, Non-Christians 89%,
Those with post-graduate education 87%! Least comfortable numbers:
Women age 50 and older 71%; AGE 65 and older 66%. Republicans 64%,
Conservative Republicans 60%.
BLACK CANDIDATE: Liberal Dems 92%, Resident of the West 91%, Annual
Income more than 75K 90%, 18 to 29 year olds 89%.
72-YEAR OLD CANDIDATE: College graduate (no post grad work) 52%,
Conservative Republican 49%, annual income above 75K 48%, men 48%.
THRICE-MARRIED- CANDIDATE: Non-Christian 66%, Liberal-Moderate
Republican 63%, Men 62%, College Graduates (No Post Grad Work) 61%.
MORMON CANDIDATE: College graduates (No post grad work) 72%, Annual
income of 75K or more 68%, Catholics 67%, Residents of the west 67%.
After exploring those most COMFORTABLE with each of the above
potential "firsts" in the 2008 campaign, USA Today/Gallup then
pursued "least likely to be comfortable" with those same potential
candidates and so it goes.
Polling is not an exact science and dependent on demographics
researched, information desired, hoped for results can be colored by
how questions are worded and if the polling is done by telephone
interviews, even voice inflection can color question and indirectly
help answers to
be different.
Most well-known pollsters do not have to "play games" to get
informative results for a particular candidate or political party.
Carefully worded and structured questions do the job.
In today's cut-throat world of national politics we can expect more
personal attacks, no-holds-barred, most expensive presidential
campaigning in history. Candidates could spend well over a
billion-dollars combined in the 2008 campaign. The hatchet-troops
are already at work. President Bush will continue to bear the brunt
of growing criticism because of the growing burden of Iraq. All
Democrats and a growing number of Republicans will continue to
question his tactics and he will continue to say we will not "cut
and run".
And while less than a dozen candidates have formed the necessary
paperwork making them a candidate. Chances are also good the people
who will be nominated by the GOP and the Democrats, or possible
Independent Standard Bearers have not yet made their plans known.
But those who are acting like candidates, who say they will seek the
top spot in 2008....all those people who could be a FIRST...we are
just going to have to wait and see! Who will drop out? Who will make
the first BIG mistake?
Who will appear to be
gaining strength in Poll after Poll after Poll that will be done
with almost each passing week and then each passing day as 2008
draws nearer. And perhaps the biggest question--who will perform
best on
television?
American voters may decide they just do not want a FIRST....they may
want it to remain the way it has been for 43 Presidential Elections!
They might just elect another white Male to move into that big WHITE
House on Pennsylvania Avenue in 2008!
Would you vote for a FIRST?
Murphy Martin
Your thoughts and comments forwarded to my website will be
appreciated.
e-mail
murphy@murphymartin.com
Previous commentaries:
"The Bug and
Nostalgia"
"A Night to
Remember"
"President's
Week"
"Two Different
Wars"
"Dungy Leaves
Indelible Mark"
"All Kinds of
Smiles!"
"Humbled, Not
Bowed!"
"Free at Last!"
"Three Vastly
Different Lives"
"America at Her
Best"
"Holiday
Surprises"
"Christmas 2006"
"Is the Fat Lady
Singing?"
"Sixty Five
Years Later"
"Make It Merry
Christmas"
"Voices from
History"
"Dreams -
Reality?"
"Democrats
Dominate"
"Honored and
Humbled"
"Last Minute
Sparring"
"Cheyenne
Memories"
"How Much Will
It Hold?"
"FOX Controls on
Tenth Birthday"
"Clinton Points
Finger Again"
"U.N. Nuclear
Sparring"
"SRO for Latest
Hall of Famer"
"Katie's Back,
Legs and All!"
"Will T.O. Ride
Bicycle Or Tricycle?"
"Couric News
Carousel Approaching"
"George Was Not
First"
"Cowboy's
Control Canton"
"Despite
Unfinished Business, Congress Takes a Vacation"
"Reality Television Rolls on Sunday"
"The President Speaks His Mind"
"The World Around Us"
"Birthday Time Again"
"Presidents -- Past and Present"
"Expensive Babies"
"Change of Pace"
"Yesterday Katie Said Goodbye to Today"
"Musical Chairs Continue at ABC-TV"
"No Quick
Support for Bush Plan"
"Moussaoui
Meeting with Virgins Delayed"
"What the Hell Happened?"
"His Name is Still Magic"
"The Tallest Pine is Gone"
"Keeping America Free"
"Remembering"
"Christians vs Muslims"
"Bush Bucks Bashing"
"Early Look at 2008"
"Contrasting Memories"
"Reporter's Rough Roads"
"Another Cowboys Loss"
"People, Places and Things"
"Super Bowl Wasn't So Super"
"State of the Union"
"Is God Dead in Europe?"
"Remembering Dr. King"
"This Week in Review"
"New Year, New Challenges"
"The Party's Over"
"Democracy in the Middle East"
"Unfinished Business"
"Merry
Christmas Rules"
"Bush
Unveils Plans"
"Today is Special"
"Border
Security Now!!!"
"Stupidity Loses Financing"
"Crisis Christians"
"They
Led the Way"
"Sadistic Saddam Hussein"
"Bourbon Street Bashing"
"Hurricane Aftermath"
"Standing Tall"
"Never a Dull Moment"
"Another Hero Laid to Rest"
"Blame Game"
"Senior Thoughts For the Young"
"Role Model Challenge"
August 18 - "Network News Anchors"
August 11 - "Now All Three Are Gone"
August 4 - "Trust in the Media"
July 28 - "Television Then and Now"
July 21 - "The Mick"
July 14 - "Forty Years and Counting"
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