e-mail   murphy@murphymartin.com

Murphy Martin Commentary
March 16, 2006

 "Early Look at 2008"

"Straw polls are entertaining, even extremely early ones!" That statement from Arizona Senator John McCain to a group of GOP loyalists from more than two-dozen states last week. Despite what Senator McCain had to say presidential possibilities for 2008 will get more and more attention in the months to come.

According to ABC-TV Research people, Americans have favorable views of the two most talked about potential 2008 presidential candidates, Sen Hillary Clinton and Sen. John McCain. A closer look however reflects profiles vastly different. ABC sees Sen. Clinton much stronger in her base while McCain is much more appealing beyond his.

Political researchers at ABC say Sen. Clinton appears unstoppable for the Democratic nomination, but would have a difficult time winning a general election. On the other hand, McCain is in the opposite position--unstoppable in the general election but with a tough road to travel getting the GOP nomination.

Within their parties, these two candidates are the most potent fundraisers among those being mentioned for the run for the Presidential Roses. Both have been involved in national campaigns before, a big advantage few other candidates in either party has.

ABC researchers also have said don't believe those people who say Sen. Clinton cannot win a general election, or those who say McCain cannot be the Republican nominee. Clinton would simply have to win all the states Kerry won in 2004 and either Florida or Ohio which some network researchers feel is possible, especially if McCain is NOT the GOP candidate. But McCain has made more big strides making new friends while defusing old GOP enemies than many have noticed.

Network research also reflects, at this early date, that getting a true feel for having a woman presidential candidate on Election Day 2008 is not possible now and will probably remain so for a long time. Add to this the fact that many Democrats, including those close to potential leading presidential candidates, believe that a healthy John McCain--if nominated by his party--would be unbeatable, no matter who the Democrats choose.

In an ABC News/Washington Post Poll,t hose who have a favorable opinion of the candidates had McCain at 58%, Clinton at 52%. In that same poll the unfavorable numbers had Clinton at 46% and McCain at 29%.

Will any of these numbers hold up when more players take an active roll seeking the nomination of each party? Who will be the other candidates? Will President Bush's remaining days at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue help or hurt GOP chances in 2008?

At that meeting of leading GOP loyalists we mentioned in paragraph one, a straw poll gave 37% to Sen. Bill Frist, 14% to Gov. Mitt Romney, 10% to Sen. George Allen of Virginia, and only 4% to John McCain who said: "I think we have bigger things to worry about. The only one who needs our support today with a war going on is President Bush."

It is a long time until Election Day 2008 but jockeying for position has already begun.

We can expect an abundance of polling in the months ahead. The only one, not made of straw, will be the one you drop in the ballot box in November 2008!

Murphy Martin

Keep your comments coming!  murphy@murphymartin.com

Your thoughts and comments forwarded to my website will be appreciated.

e-mail   murphy@murphymartin.com

Previous commentaries:
"Contrasting Memories"
"Reporter's Rough Roads"
"Another Cowboys Loss"
"People, Places and Things"
"Super Bowl Wasn't So Super"
"State of the Union"
"Is God Dead in Europe?"
"Remembering Dr. King"
"This Week in Review"
"New Year, New Challenges"
"The Party's Over"
"Merry Christmas Rules"
"Bush Unveils Plans"
"Border Security Now!!!"
"Stupidity Loses Financing"
"Crisis Christians"
"They Led the Way"
"Sadistic Saddam Hussein"
"Bourbon Street Bashing"
"Hurricane Aftermath"
"Standing Tall"
"Never a Dull Moment"
"Another Hero Laid to Rest"
"Blame Game"
"Senior Thoughts For the Young"
"Role Model Challenge"
August 18 - "Network News Anchors"
August 11 - "Now All Three Are Gone"
August 4 - "Trust in the Media"
July 28 - "Television Then and Now"
July 21 -  "The Mick"
July 14 - "Forty Years and Counting"