The 2004 election is history, but broadcasters are rubbing their collective hands together in anticipation of a huge windfall that has nothing to do with political advertising revenue.

            The nation’s two major broadcast trade publications, Broadcasting & Cable and Television Week, are predicting changes at the Federal Communications Commission that will result in an increasing republican influence. That, in turn, will proffer even more rewards to big broadcasters.

            Technically, the F.C.C. is an apolitical concept. There are 5 commissioners, all of whom are appointed by the White House. But the structure that is mandated requires at least two commissioners be from the opposing political party, and commissioners are only appointed when a vacancy arises, as in when an appointed term ends or a commissioner resigns. So the republicans get three of the five positions, one of which is the chairmanship, which is currently held by Michael Powell, son of the soon-to-be former secretary of state.

            The republican-dominated F.C.C. of the last presidential term brought us highly publicized “decency” actions against broadcasters, some of which were retroactive. That is, on-air activity that took place a few years ago was now being fined, even though the previous F.C.C. had considered it acceptable.

            Many feel the F.C.C.’s decency challenges are nothing more than a grandstanding effort to “give the public what they want.” After all, didn’t the republicans tap into the nation’s consciousness in their recent win? As challenges to F.C.C. fines make their way to the courts, the fines could be found unconstitutional under Freedom of Speech guidelines. But the Bush White House is also in a position to remake the U.S. Supreme Court in its own image, which might derail that possibility.

            And is this really what the public wants? Recently the F.C.C. fined Fox $1.2 million for the airing of a show called “Married by America.” If you assume this action came because of public outcry, you’d be wrong. A total of three letters of complaint were received by the Commission. The public apparently votes one way and uses media another. At this writing, the #2 show in America is that bastion of moral values, “Desperate Housewives.” Someone likes this stuff.

            There are also rumors circulating in the industry that the F.C.C. wants the power to regulate cable and satellite the same way it regulates over-the-air broadcasters. Originally, the Commission instituted its regulation to protect unsuspecting listeners and viewers from distasteful surprises on their radios and TVs. It has since been assumed that a consumer who is paying for cable or satellite is aware that things might be a bit bluer there. The big broadcast owners would love to see cable and satellite under the same regulations, which would level to standards playing field, and those are the very owners who are in the good graces of Bush, et. al.

            The previous presidential term also saw a failed effort by the administration to relax ownership rules even further, thus giving the huge media conglomerates even more properties. That effort was shot down in a blitz that cast chairman Powell in an extremely negative light. Nonetheless, a newly emboldened president who feels he has a clear mandate from the populace is expected to try to shove the rule relaxation through during the next couple of years.

            The broadcasters apparently aren’t the only ones looking forward to four more years of a Bush White House. Many ultra conservative groups that backed his reelection now expect Mr. Bush to go to bat for them in their efforts to clean up the airwaves of broadcasting which they deem inappropriate for the public.

            The biggest question mark regarding the new F.C.C. is the future of chairman Michael Powell. In his first term, he angered many in Washington with his lightning rod personality. There are unconfirmed rumors that the White House would prefer to keep as many controversies below the radar as they can. With republicans in the majority in the House and Senate, that might be easier during this term, but the appointment of a supremely loyal lapdog to the F.C.C. chairmanship would be a big step toward deflecting the spotlight from the regulatory agency and its efforts to reward big media by continuing to deregulate.

e-mail Frank Absher at fabsher@swbell.net